Will the U.S. enter a recession by the end of 2026?

Market context

Market opened

Jul 22, 2026, 7:12 AM ET

Trading closes

Jan 1, 2027, 12:00 AM ET

Outcomes

Yes · No

Rules

This market resolves to "Yes" if either of the following conditions is satisfied: 1. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports a seasonally adjusted annualized quarterly change in U.S. real GDP of less than 0.0% for two consecutive quarters, with the qualifying quarters occurring between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026, inclusive. 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that the United States entered a recession at any time during 2025 or 2026, provided the announcement is made no later than the release of the BEA's advance estimate for Q4 2026. If neither condition is met, this market resolves to "No". Advance GDP estimates will be used for resolution. For example, if the advance estimate for Q3 2025 is negative when released and the most recent available estimate for Q2 2025 is also negative, the market resolves to "Yes". Likewise, if the latest available estimate for Q3 2026 remains negative as of December 31, 2026, the market will remain open until the BEA publishes the advance estimate for Q4 2026. At that time, the market will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 is also negative or if the NBER has announced a U.S. recession by then. The primary resolution sources are official publications from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), including the BEA's reported seasonally adjusted annualized quarterly percent change in U.S. real GDP available at https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.