Will the U.S. enter a recession by the end of 2027?

Market context

Market opened

Oct 8, 2026, 12:43 PM ET

Trading closes

Oct 8, 2026, 4:16 PM ET

Outcomes

Yes · No

Rules

This market resolves YES if the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) officially declares that a recession occurred in the United States with a start date on or before 31 December 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee is the authoritative arbiter of U.S. recession dates and typically announces such declarations with a lag of several months after the recession has ended. A recession is defined by the NBER as a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. The declaration must come from an official NBER statement or press release. If the NBER has not made a formal declaration by the market resolution date, a consensus of credible reporting from major financial news outlets (Bloomberg, Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Financial Times) citing NBER data or widespread economist agreement on recession dates may also be used. Mere predictions, forecasts, or statements of recession risk do not qualify. A technical recession (two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth) that has not yet been formally recognized by the NBER does not qualify unless the NBER subsequently confirms it. The primary source is the official NBER website and announcements; credible financial news reporting serves as a secondary source.