Will The AI Bubble Burst Before 2027?

Market context

Market opened

Jul 27, 2026, 10:59 AM ET

Trading closes

Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET

Outcomes

Yes · No

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe: NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high. OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy. OpenAI, Inc. is acquired. The H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as reported by the SiliconData Silicon Index: https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index. A major AI hardware supplier experiences a collapse, defined as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) having a closing stock price 50% below its all-time high. For clarity, the requirement that qualifying events occur within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe means that at least three qualifying events must occur during the same continuous 90-day period, with the end of that period occurring no later than December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. For example, if qualifying events occur on January 10, February 5, and March 3, 2026, they satisfy this requirement because all three occur within the same 90-day period. By contrast, if qualifying events occur on January 10, April 20, and November 1, 2026, they do not satisfy this requirement because they do not all occur within a single continuous 90-day period. This market may resolve immediately once three qualifying conditions have been met within a qualifying 90-day period. This market will not resolve to "Yes" based solely on reports or claims that the AI bubble has burst or that the AI industry is experiencing a downturn. A "Yes" resolution requires that at least three of the qualifying conditions listed above have been satisfied within the same qualifying 90-day period. The primary resolution sources will be official information from the relevant companies and listing exchanges. If official sources are unavailable or insufficient, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.